http://www.zerohedge.com/news/germany-speaks-not-so-fast-greek-deal
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/13/2012 17:37 -0500
Europe's now painfully transparent policy of demanding that Greece decide to default on its own is becoming so glaringly obvious, we truly fear for the intellectual capacity of everyone who ramps the EURUSD on any incremental "europe is saved" rumor. As a reminder, yesterday we said, in parallel with the Greek irrelevant MoU vote: "The only real questions are i) what the Greek population may do in response to this latest selling out of a population "led" by an unelected banker, which if history is any precedent, the answer is not much, and ii) how Germany will subvert this latest event, and put the bail [sic] back in Greece's court once again." We documented on i) earlier today - a couple of burned down buildings, a few vandalized store fronts, lots of tear gas and that's about it, as people still either don't believe or can't grasp the seriousness of the situation. As for ii) we now get the first indication that not all may be well on Wednesday. From the FT: "European officials rushed to finalise details of a €130bn Greek bail-out on Monday amid signs Germany and its eurozone allies may not be prepared to approve the deal at a finance minsters’ meeting on Wednesday, despite Athens backing new austerity measures." And so the bail [sic] is once again back in Greece's court, where however since the last such occurrence, the parliament has 43 MPs less. Quite soon, the only person left in "charge" of the country will be the ECB apparatchick and unelected banker Lucas Papademos.
Germany's ulterior motives are so bright, we gotta wear shades:
One eurozone official said the group had come up with a list of at least a half-dozen items that Greece must accept before the deal will be moved to finance ministers for final approval on Wednesday.
The items on the list include, according to several officials, proof of the €325m in cuts, clarification on how Greece intends to reduce labour costs 15 per cent, and reassurance that all Greek leaders will back the deal – especially after Antonis Samaras, head of the centre-right New Democracy party and Greece’s presumptive next prime minister, indicated that he may try to renegotiate the pact after April elections.But the biggest weakness? The very item we noted earlier this morning, namely that "Samaras Pledges To "Renegotiate" Bailout Pact After April Elections"The parliamentary vote is important, but it’s not the be all and end all,” said another eurozone official. “Samaras’s explanations are shifty.”So what is next up on deck: a "conditional" bailout of Greece.If the German-led group of creditor countries emerges unconvinced, officials said lenders may turn to a plan B, where the bail-out is given “conditional approval” and is reassessed at the next scheduled meeting of eurozone finance ministers next week.
In that case, ministers would only give the go-ahead for a critical part of the new bail-out, a €200bn restructuring of privately held debt which must begin in a matter of days in order to be completed before Greece’s next bond comes due – a €14.5bn redemption on March 20.
To complete the voluntary restructuring, where private debt holders have agreed to cut their bonds in half, eurozone lenders must approve €30bn in new cash to serve as a “sweetener” for bondholders to participate.So even as the fallback plan continues to be "baffle them with bullshit" literally every day, and delay, delay, delay, while America's seasonal adjustments somehow make it a self-contained economy in its own right, which no longer needs the benefit of the world's largest economy (and judging by the EURUSD traders out there, this just may pass), while slowly but surely everyone becomes convinced that it will be in everyone best interest just to let Greece go, and that everyone is sufficiently prepared for just that "contingency."As was the case with Lehman... At least, until the Fed had to step in with a $20 trillion bailout to preserve the Western way of life of course.and......
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe-weve-done-all-we-can-now-its-americas-turn-help
Europe: We've Done All We Can, Now It's America's Turn To Help
Cue the fireworks in 3...2...1...
- FRIEDEN EUROPEANS CAN'T DO MUCH FOR GREECE BEYOND AGREEMENT - BBG
- FRIEDEN: GREECE NEEDS STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SHORT-TERM FINANCING - BBG
- FRIEDEN: GREECE HAS HISTORY OF PROBLEMS IMPLEMENTING DECISIONS - BBG
- FRIEDEN: GREECE SHOULDN'T BE IN EURO-ZONE IF CONDITIONS NOT MET - BBG
And... drumroll please:
- FRIEDEN SAYS HE WISHES U.S. MORE INVOLVED IN STRENGTHENING IMF - BBG
Translation: Hey America, we've done all we can, now it's your turn to sustain the Ponzi. Because if we go, you go.
The upside: think of just how much faster the latest and gratest $16.4 trillion debt target will be breached if America simply issues Greek bonds with a US guarantee. Like it did in that other foreign policy success story - Egypt.
Moving onto the War Games Front......
http://www.debka.com/article/21735/
A fatal attack on Israelis abroad could spark war with Iran and Hizballah
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 13, 2012, 10:35 PM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 13, 2012, 10:35 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israeli embassy car in New Delhi after bomb blast
This time, no one was killed although an Talya Yehoshua- KIoren, wife of the Defense Ministry representative in India, and three others were injured by a sticky bomb planted on her Innova SUV in New Delhi Monday, Feb. 13, at almost exactly the same time as a similar device was safely defused in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.
In recent weeks, terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets were foiled in Thailand, Azerbaijan and Argentina. However much they deny this, Iran and Hizballah are clearly determined to keep on trying until they achieve their objective of killing targeted Israelis.
DEBKAfile’s military sources say that the odds are on their eventual success, after failing in four out of five tries.
On this assumption, Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz summoned three senior staff officers to a conference as soon as the first reports came in from New Delhi and Tbilisi at around noon Monday. It was attended by Military Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavy, Air Force commander Ido Nehushtan and Operations Division chief Maj. Gen. Yaakov Ayash. The meeting’s level indicated that it was not limited to discussing the immediate import of the two bombing attacks but focused rather on the broader ramifications of a potential attack with Israeli fatalities and its impact on the prospects of war.
This assumption does not look far-fetched when it is recalled that deadly terrorist attacks in the past plunged Israel into two major wars.
On June 3, 1982, four terrorists gunned down Israeli ambassador Shlomo Argov outside the Dorchester in London. He was in a coma until his death 21 years later. Three days after the attack, Israeli troops invaded Lebanon to fight the Palestinians and Syria.
Twenty-four years later, on July 12, 2006, Hizballah raiders crossed into Israel and attacked an IDF patrol. They killed three of its members and dragged two back into Lebanon to be held as hostages. Before the day ended, Israel was at war, this time with Hizballah.
So the agenda on Gen. Gantz’s urgent discussion with the IDF’s intelligence, air force and operations chiefs
was obviously not about plans to fly Israeli troops to New Delhi or Tbilisi, but for a calculus of the proximity of a full-scale war at some point in the ongoing wave of terror.
For some weeks now, the Middle East has been teetering at the edge of a precipice. A sudden shove could push it over the edge into full-blown armed hostilities without President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei being in control. The atmosphere is already dangerously charged over the crisis in Syria, reciprocal US and Iranian threats over the Strait of Hormuz, and US and Israeli preparations to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.But wars may be ignited without notice by a small spark or a terrorist attack far from Middle East shores that would cause enough Israeli fatalities to satisfy its instigators in Tehran and Beirut and provoke an Israeli military response. This was dangerously close to happening in New Delhi Monday.
In recent weeks, terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets were foiled in Thailand, Azerbaijan and Argentina. However much they deny this, Iran and Hizballah are clearly determined to keep on trying until they achieve their objective of killing targeted Israelis.
DEBKAfile’s military sources say that the odds are on their eventual success, after failing in four out of five tries.
On this assumption, Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz summoned three senior staff officers to a conference as soon as the first reports came in from New Delhi and Tbilisi at around noon Monday. It was attended by Military Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavy, Air Force commander Ido Nehushtan and Operations Division chief Maj. Gen. Yaakov Ayash. The meeting’s level indicated that it was not limited to discussing the immediate import of the two bombing attacks but focused rather on the broader ramifications of a potential attack with Israeli fatalities and its impact on the prospects of war.
This assumption does not look far-fetched when it is recalled that deadly terrorist attacks in the past plunged Israel into two major wars.
On June 3, 1982, four terrorists gunned down Israeli ambassador Shlomo Argov outside the Dorchester in London. He was in a coma until his death 21 years later. Three days after the attack, Israeli troops invaded Lebanon to fight the Palestinians and Syria.
Twenty-four years later, on July 12, 2006, Hizballah raiders crossed into Israel and attacked an IDF patrol. They killed three of its members and dragged two back into Lebanon to be held as hostages. Before the day ended, Israel was at war, this time with Hizballah.
So the agenda on Gen. Gantz’s urgent discussion with the IDF’s intelligence, air force and operations chiefs
was obviously not about plans to fly Israeli troops to New Delhi or Tbilisi, but for a calculus of the proximity of a full-scale war at some point in the ongoing wave of terror.
For some weeks now, the Middle East has been teetering at the edge of a precipice. A sudden shove could push it over the edge into full-blown armed hostilities without President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei being in control. The atmosphere is already dangerously charged over the crisis in Syria, reciprocal US and Iranian threats over the Strait of Hormuz, and US and Israeli preparations to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.But wars may be ignited without notice by a small spark or a terrorist attack far from Middle East shores that would cause enough Israeli fatalities to satisfy its instigators in Tehran and Beirut and provoke an Israeli military response. This was dangerously close to happening in New Delhi Monday.
and....
http://www.debka.com/article/21732/
Hizballah/Iranian bombing injures Israeli official's wife in New Delhi
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 13, 2012, 7:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 13, 2012, 7:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israel car blown up in New Delhi
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Monday, Feb. 12: “We know exactly who was responsible for the two attacks on Israeli officials abroad and they will not go unanswered.” He was responding two attacks on Israeli officials Monday by bombs attached to their cars. One blew up in New Delhi, injuring Talya Yehushua-Koren, wife of the Defense Ministry representative in India and three others. The other one was discovered before it exploded by the car’s owner, a local embassy employee in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Israeli diplomats and foreign officials were ordered to stop using their own vehicles and be extra-vigilant after the two attacks.
The Innova SUV car bearing diplomatic number 109 CD 35 went up in flames after it exploded near a petrol pump, meters away from 7 Race Course Road – the Indian Prime Minister’s residence. Another car in the vicinity was also damaged. The Indian police cordoned off the area and declared a terror alert.
According to unconfirmed reports, the car was tailed by two men on a motorcycle. The man riding pillion threw in ‘something’, following which there was an explosion in the car. According to another report the explosion was remotely detonated.
In the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, a bomb attached to the car of a local Israeli embassy employee was discovered and defused before it exploded.
It is not known if the bomb was rigged to kill the employee or to blow up remotely against the embassy building after the vehicle was driven into the compound.
Sunday, Feb. 11, was the fourth anniversary of the death of Hizballah’s commander Imad Mughniye in Damascus. Tehran is marking the first anniversary of the assassinations of two of its nuclear scientists. Both attribute the attacks to Israel and have sworn vengeance.Our counter-terror sources report that the attacks on Israeli officials used the same sticky (magentic) bomb method as was used to kill the Iranian scientists.
The Innova SUV car bearing diplomatic number 109 CD 35 went up in flames after it exploded near a petrol pump, meters away from 7 Race Course Road – the Indian Prime Minister’s residence. Another car in the vicinity was also damaged. The Indian police cordoned off the area and declared a terror alert.
According to unconfirmed reports, the car was tailed by two men on a motorcycle. The man riding pillion threw in ‘something’, following which there was an explosion in the car. According to another report the explosion was remotely detonated.
In the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, a bomb attached to the car of a local Israeli embassy employee was discovered and defused before it exploded.
It is not known if the bomb was rigged to kill the employee or to blow up remotely against the embassy building after the vehicle was driven into the compound.
Sunday, Feb. 11, was the fourth anniversary of the death of Hizballah’s commander Imad Mughniye in Damascus. Tehran is marking the first anniversary of the assassinations of two of its nuclear scientists. Both attribute the attacks to Israel and have sworn vengeance.Our counter-terror sources report that the attacks on Israeli officials used the same sticky (magentic) bomb method as was used to kill the Iranian scientists.
In the past month attacks on Israeli embassies in Thailand and Azerbaijan were thwarted with the help of local counter terror authorities’ cooperation.
and....
http://www.debka.com/article/21733/
Saudis prompt Al Qaeda-Iraq move to Syria: Assad’s ouster top priority
DEBKAfile Special Report February 13, 2012, 3:55 PM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKAfile Special Report February 13, 2012, 3:55 PM (GMT+02:00)
Syria frees al Qaeda mastermind Abu Mus’ab al-Suri
Saudi rulers, seeing Bashar Assad on the verge of defeating the opposition to his rule, are reported by DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources as taking a hand in turning al Qaeda Iraqi cells loose against him. Saudi agents used their pull with Iraqi Sunnis to persuade al Qaeda leaders that Assad and his Alawite regime were their most dangerous foe.
The same message was also broadcast by their Pakistan-based leader Ayman al Zuweiri.
Al Qaeda strength was fast building up in Syria, say US intelligence agencies tracking the jihadists’ Middle East movements – ten days before Zawahri Sunday, Feb. 11 issued his videotaped instruction to all combat strength in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to converge on the Syrian battlefield.
The same message was also broadcast by their Pakistan-based leader Ayman al Zuweiri.
Al Qaeda strength was fast building up in Syria, say US intelligence agencies tracking the jihadists’ Middle East movements – ten days before Zawahri Sunday, Feb. 11 issued his videotaped instruction to all combat strength in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey to converge on the Syrian battlefield.
Monday, Iraq’s acting interior minister Adnan al-Assadi confirmed that “a number of jihadists had gone to Syria,” reporting also that the price of weapons in Mosul had risen because they were being sent to the opposition in Syria “from Baghdad to Nineveh [province].”
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources estimate that the bulk of the 1,500-strong Iraq-based al Qaeda network– Syrians, Egyptians, Libyans, Mauritanians, Pakistanis, Lebanese and Palestinians – have headed to Syria. This accounts for the sharp drop in terrorist attacks inside Iraq
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources estimate that the bulk of the 1,500-strong Iraq-based al Qaeda network– Syrians, Egyptians, Libyans, Mauritanians, Pakistanis, Lebanese and Palestinians – have headed to Syria. This accounts for the sharp drop in terrorist attacks inside Iraq
The jihadists are making it across, despite nightly battles with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malik forces, whom Tehran has ordered block their passage, and with Syrian border guards on the other side.
The newly-arrived al Qaeda cells were almost certainly behind the Aleppo car bombings Friday, Feb. 10, which claimed the lies of 28 people, most security officials, and injured more than 200.
The newly-arrived al Qaeda cells were almost certainly behind the Aleppo car bombings Friday, Feb. 10, which claimed the lies of 28 people, most security officials, and injured more than 200.
After virtually crushing most of the pockets of resistance to his rule, the Syrian ruler may well find himself up against the new threat of jihadist terror. After battling American troops for nine year, Al Qaeda in Iraq will not be easy to vanquish.
Ironically, they infiltrated Iraq from Syria across same border they are now breaching in the opposite direction. After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Assad regime gave al Qaeda forward bases and charged a fee of $10,000 or more for each individual crossing into Iraq with Syrian security cover.
Al Qaeda terrorists are therefore familiar with Assad’s security forces’ methods of operation and terrain and know how to elude them. Even when the Assad regime and al Qaeda were in close cahoots against the US war effort in Iraq, the Islamists kept the secrets of their hideouts and training centers from the knowledge of Syrian security and military intelligence. They can now make a beeline for their old clandestine haunts, our counter-terror sources report, for surprise assaults on their former allies.
In this regard, Assad and his intelligence advisers blundered badly when they decided to release the noted al Qaeda theoretician and strategist Abu Mus’ab al-Suri (real name Mustafa Abdul-Qadir). Born in Aleppo, he fought the Assads for more than three decades. Yet he was freed for two reasons:
1. Abu Mus’ab is Al-Zawahri ideological and tactical opponent and rival. The Syrians counted on him heading for Iraq and countermanding his antagonist’s directives to move jihadist strength into Syria. But now they have lost him. His whereabouts are unknown.
2. Assad had a score to settle with Britain for backing the opposition to his rule. Abu Mus’ab was the mastermind of the July 7, 2005 terrorist attacks on London’s transport system and 52 deaths, as well as the Madrid train bombings of March 11, 2004 which left 191 dead. The Syrian ruler had hoped that on the loose, Abu Mus’ab would start a fresh wave of bombing attacks in the UK. There is a $5 million US bounty on his head. His encyclopedia “Call for Global Islamic Resistance has been a template for jihadists.
Neither of Assad’s calculations was borne out. He now fears that one his most dedicated foes will now be gunning for him.
In his videotape statement, Al Zawahri ordered the mobilization of al Qaeda strength across the Middle East: “Wounded Syria is still bleeding day after day and the butcher isn’t deterred and doesn’t stop,” he said Sunday. “However, the resistance of our people in Syria is escalating and growing…”
In his videotape statement, Al Zawahri ordered the mobilization of al Qaeda strength across the Middle East: “Wounded Syria is still bleeding day after day and the butcher isn’t deterred and doesn’t stop,” he said Sunday. “However, the resistance of our people in Syria is escalating and growing…”
Riyadh, even after giving Syria’s Sunni-led opposition arms and funding to stiffen their resistance to the regime, sees them falling back in the face of brutal military massacres. Turning to their Sunni friends in Iraq, Saudi agents asked them to convince al Qaeda leaders to make Syria their primary warfront and Alawite Bashar Assad’s overthrow their first priority - before even the ouster of Shiite Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad.
They argued that Assad’s survival would strengthen Iran’s and the Shiites’ grip on Baghdad, whereas his removal would weaken both their enemies.
Riyadh therefore laid on the money, logistics and arms for al Qaeda’s transfer from Iraq to Syria in the hope of energizing the flagging anti-Assad opposition’s struggle. Finally, after eleven months, Syrian dissidents find themselves sharing a broad base of operations with Muslim (Turkish), Arab, al Qaeda and Western allies.
Earlier fears in Washington that Iran would mobilize al Qaeda against American targets have been turned aside by Saudi Arabia getting in first to enlist the Islamist jihads against the pro-Iranian Syrian regime.
Earlier fears in Washington that Iran would mobilize al Qaeda against American targets have been turned aside by Saudi Arabia getting in first to enlist the Islamist jihads against the pro-Iranian Syrian regime.
and.....
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/02/2012213165354748353.html
The UN Security Council's inability to pass a resolution on Syria has encouraged the government to step up its assault on the opposition and launch an "indiscriminate attack" on civilians in the city of Homs, the UN human rights chief has said.
"The failure of the Security Council to agree on firm collective action appears to have emboldened the Syrian
government to launch an all-out assault in an effort to crush dissent with overwhelming force," Navi Pillay, the High Commissioner for Human Rights told the UN General Assembly on Monday.
Pillay added that crimes against humanity have likely been committed in the bloody crackdown on dissidents.
"The nature and scale of abuses committed by Syrian forces indicate that crimes against humanity are likely to have been committed since March 2011," she said, speaking of the crackdown in which an estimated 6,000 people have died in less than a year.
Activists say President Bashar al-Assad's forces have killed at least 500 people in Homs just since February 4 when they began attacking the central city with a barrage of tank shells, mortar rounds and rocket-propelled grenades.
The assault on Homs began on the same day Russia and China vetoed a second UN Security Council resolution on Syria.
That move prompted the Arab League to ask the United Nations for a joint Arab-UN peacekeeping mission to the strife-torn country.
Syria has however ignored the latest Arab initiative to end the bloodshed, with tanks and artillery continuing to pound Homs.
"The risk of a humanitarian crisis throughout Syria is rising," warned Pillay in the UN address.
Russia balks
Earlier on Monday, Russia's foreign minister made it clear that Moscow would not support a plan to send United Nations peacekeepers to Syria unless there was a halt to violence by both government forces and their armed opponents.
Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that Russia was studying the proposal for a joint UN-Arab peacekeeping force in Syria, announced on Sunday at an Arab League meeting in Cairo, and wanted more details.
But his remarks suggested his country, which has veto power at the UN Security Council, would use the proposal to
underscore its own argument that the government's armed opponents are no less of an obstacle to peace than Assad's forces.
"The failure of the Security Council to agree on firm collective action appears to have emboldened the Syrian
government to launch an all-out assault in an effort to crush dissent with overwhelming force," Navi Pillay, the High Commissioner for Human Rights told the UN General Assembly on Monday.
Pillay added that crimes against humanity have likely been committed in the bloody crackdown on dissidents.
"The nature and scale of abuses committed by Syrian forces indicate that crimes against humanity are likely to have been committed since March 2011," she said, speaking of the crackdown in which an estimated 6,000 people have died in less than a year.
Activists say President Bashar al-Assad's forces have killed at least 500 people in Homs just since February 4 when they began attacking the central city with a barrage of tank shells, mortar rounds and rocket-propelled grenades.
 |
That move prompted the Arab League to ask the United Nations for a joint Arab-UN peacekeeping mission to the strife-torn country.
Syria has however ignored the latest Arab initiative to end the bloodshed, with tanks and artillery continuing to pound Homs.
"The risk of a humanitarian crisis throughout Syria is rising," warned Pillay in the UN address.
Russia balks
Earlier on Monday, Russia's foreign minister made it clear that Moscow would not support a plan to send United Nations peacekeepers to Syria unless there was a halt to violence by both government forces and their armed opponents.
Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that Russia was studying the proposal for a joint UN-Arab peacekeeping force in Syria, announced on Sunday at an Arab League meeting in Cairo, and wanted more details.
But his remarks suggested his country, which has veto power at the UN Security Council, would use the proposal to
underscore its own argument that the government's armed opponents are no less of an obstacle to peace than Assad's forces.
| UN peacekeeping missions "need to first have a peace to support," Lavrov told a news conference after talks with Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister. "In other words, it is necessary to agree to something like a ceasefire, but the tragedy is that the armed groups that are confronting the forces of the regime are not subordinate to anyone and are not under control," Lavrov said in Moscow. Russia joined China in a double veto to block a UN Security Council resolution supporting an Arab League call for Assad to quit, provoking strong criticism from the Western and Arab sates that supported the draft. Bloodshed denounced On Sunday, the Arab League called on the UN Security Council to create a joint peacekeeping force for Syria and urged Arab states to sever all diplomatic contact with Assad's government. Syria immediately rejected the move, spelled out in a resolution adopted by the league's foreign ministers meeting in Cairo.
Saud Al-Faisal, Saudi foreign minister, conveyed the 22-nation league's deep frustration with Syria, telling delegates that it was no longer appropriate to stand by and watch the bloodshed. "Until when will we remain spectators?'' he said. The bloodshed in Syria, "is a disgrace for us as Muslims and Arabs to accept". The Arab League suspended an observer mission in Syria last month, and on Sunday that Elaraby accepted the resignation of Sudanese General Mohammed al-Dabi, who led the troubled mission. Elaraby recommended appointing former Jordanian foreign minister and UN envoy to Libya Abdel Ilah al-Khatib as Dabi's replacement. | ||
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